Hurricanes and Predicting Their Path

As Irene keeps heading north I have had several people ask why I was not worried because it was going to stay east of Marathon. It is pretty simple really because the models have an average based on historical data and the ensemble of the models. Averages are a great thing, but hardly anything is exactly average. So if you compare the models that are based on the actually conditions that the storm is/will encountering to the "average" you have an idea which side of the cone the track will favor. Storms rarely hit the center of the cone three to five days after they are projected. So you can get a pretty good idea what the track will likely be. The intensity though is a different critter. The intensity models are totally out to lunch, so you can only use experience to get a general idea. There is a lot of neat stuff you can pick up when your life and livelihood depend on it.

The news guys generally think the Keys residents are nuts for staying put for a storm the news guys think will be the "Big One". I have slept through a few "big ones" in my motor home because news guys were wrong and evacuated for one when the news guys didn't think it would be the "big one", turned out to be a big one, at least for me.

Now Irene will cause a few things to change down here. With the higher winds and the new moon, critters in the local waters will move around a bit. That normally means there will be some pretty good fishing. On the reef the dirtier water will kick the yellowtail bite up and some flags will be caught in the shallower waters. The mangroves that have been moving to the bay will tend to congregate a little thicker waiting to see what happens. That may be at the bridge or further back in the bay, but with a little looking, you should be able to catch some larger fish. The lobster guys will find that a good deal of the bugs have moved to deeper water. Off shore, the bay grass pushed south by the winds will screw things up for a day or two then the bite should pick up nicely.

So if you ain't scared of no tropical weather, Marathon in the Florida Keys should be your next fishing vacation destination. Join us for charter fishing, fishing guide trips or our fishing 101 so you can fish on your own with better success.

Tight lines,

Capt. Dallas

Fishing Consultant

Ah, The Off Season in the Florida Keys

This is the time of the year when my thoughts turn to other things like money and solving all the worlds problems. As some of you know I dabble in atmospheric physics and alternate energy which I find entertaining but pays squat. So I have another blog where I irritate real scientists that actually get paid to scare the hell out of us. That blog is Our Energy Future: Hydrogen. Both of these blogs have little links that if you click them I magically make money. So if you have the least amount of interest in any of the ads that Google thinks might interest you, click away.

Moving the Motor Coach to its new location inspired me to make some repairs and improvements. The photo above is a poor image of the new wainscot in the dining area used to cover the gaping hole in the wall required to repair a water leak in the shower. That project plus the new floor in the bedroom to replace the water damaged carpet led to some painting, a new microwave shelf, mongo spice rack and a taller than my cabinets likes cereal/oil/condiment rack. Now I can turn my thoughts more fully to solving all the world's problems which gives me a warm feeling similar to peeing my pants and is just as beneficial.

That means that fishing reports will be on the slow side unless something really interesting pops up. With the moon phase, I doubt that will happen for a week or so then things should be interesting again. Until then click away and amuse yourselves with my warped view of the world we live in.

Marathon in the Florida Keys should be your next fishing vacation destination. Join us for charter fishing, fishing guide trips or our fishing 101 so you can fish on your own with better success.

Tight lines,

Capt. Dallas

Can't Wait to get Back to Fishing!

With lobster mini season and fear of Emily I have been spending way too much time working on the bus instead of fishing. I should have four day of fishing next week as long as the weather holds and it should.

It is August so it is hot. Compared to many places in the US right now it no where near as steamy. On the water it is not bad except for between about 1 and 4 when it is the hottest. That is a good time to do some fast trolling or run to another spot while blow drying. When you get back to the dock it feels ten degrees hotter.

Most of the buggers had good luck last week even though the water was dirty thanks to a little extra wind. Offshore the fishing has been pretty steady with nice size dolphin and a good many black fin tuna. The bite on the reef has been great though the fish are a little smaller than normal. The mutton bite on the deeper wrecks has be hot because of the spawn which is now tapering off. It is still worth a shot if you have good numbers and live bait.

Since it is pretty toasty outside, I switched my work on the bus to inside stuff. I replaced the flooring in the bed room with that Pergo stuff. That stuff is so cheap now that I am thinking about getting creative and using it for a wainscot and trim around the bed frame.

Marathon in the Florida Keys should be your next fishing vacation destination. Join us for charter fishing, fishing guide trips or our fishing 101 so you can fish on your own with better success.

Tight lines,

Capt. Dallas

Fishing Consultant