Hurricanes and Predicting Their Path

As Irene keeps heading north I have had several people ask why I was not worried because it was going to stay east of Marathon. It is pretty simple really because the models have an average based on historical data and the ensemble of the models. Averages are a great thing, but hardly anything is exactly average. So if you compare the models that are based on the actually conditions that the storm is/will encountering to the "average" you have an idea which side of the cone the track will favor. Storms rarely hit the center of the cone three to five days after they are projected. So you can get a pretty good idea what the track will likely be. The intensity though is a different critter. The intensity models are totally out to lunch, so you can only use experience to get a general idea. There is a lot of neat stuff you can pick up when your life and livelihood depend on it.

The news guys generally think the Keys residents are nuts for staying put for a storm the news guys think will be the "Big One". I have slept through a few "big ones" in my motor home because news guys were wrong and evacuated for one when the news guys didn't think it would be the "big one", turned out to be a big one, at least for me.

Now Irene will cause a few things to change down here. With the higher winds and the new moon, critters in the local waters will move around a bit. That normally means there will be some pretty good fishing. On the reef the dirtier water will kick the yellowtail bite up and some flags will be caught in the shallower waters. The mangroves that have been moving to the bay will tend to congregate a little thicker waiting to see what happens. That may be at the bridge or further back in the bay, but with a little looking, you should be able to catch some larger fish. The lobster guys will find that a good deal of the bugs have moved to deeper water. Off shore, the bay grass pushed south by the winds will screw things up for a day or two then the bite should pick up nicely.

So if you ain't scared of no tropical weather, Marathon in the Florida Keys should be your next fishing vacation destination. Join us for charter fishing, fishing guide trips or our fishing 101 so you can fish on your own with better success.

Tight lines,

Capt. Dallas

Fishing Consultant