Monte Hall

I am bored so I thought I would baffle you guys with a little statistical BS. If you remember the Monte Hall game show, you know about the tree doors. Believe it or not, that is a statistical or as I prefer, a probability exercise, figuring out the best odds for a player.

With three doors it is pretty easy, you have a one in three chance to pick the right door and drive off in a new car. Behind the other two doors are goats. Down here in the Keys, goat is not a booby prize, it's good eats, but I will save that for another post. Monte was a fun guy, so once you picked your door, he would open another door and show you some goats. What do you do?

It is kinda trick question, but it is statistical correct, you switch doors. Why? Well, you had a 1/3 chance of picking the right door, so there was a 2/3 chance that the car was behind the other doors. If you think it doesn't matter whether you switch or not, since you have a 50/50 chance with two doors now, you need to remember there is only a 1/3 chance you have picked the right door, unless you want goats for dinner.

So why would I bring this statistical game up on my blog? Well, I have been online solving all the world's problems. Global Warming has turned into a Monte Hall problem. When all this mess started there were three guys. Hansen said the warming would be 4 degrees, Manabe said the warming would be 2 degrees and Charney compromised and said it will be three degrees. All three of these gentlemen can't be right. Since global warming is not warming up to expectations, it looks like the Hansen door has goats. That would mean there is a 2/3 chance that Manabe or Charney have the car behind their door. So what does that mean? Well, Hansen had the fat tail door. That means if it got real warm, it could get a lot warmer. That is probably a good thing, that Hansen appears to be wrong.

This little post is just to show some people that probability is a good thing to know, especially for people with fat tails that like to play poker.

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Tight lines,

Capt. Dallas